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The pattern of mammal change in Garig Gunak Barlu (Cobourg) National Park suggests a fire-mediated pathway to decline and one for recovery

Kutt, A.; Edwards, A.; Fraser, H.

2026-05-26 ecology
10.64898/2026.05.21.726985 bioRxiv
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ContextFire is a key driver of wildlife pattern in northern Australia, and in recent decades there has been concerted efforts to return burning practices from unmanaged wildfire to approaches more in tune with traditional approaches to fire management undertaken by First Nations people. AimsWe examined fire pattern (early and late dry season) and distance from coast in relation to mammal pattern on a Cobourg peninsula, as there was some evidence in variable patterns in fire history and mammal persistence in this landscape. MethodsIn this study we examined data collected from Garig Gunak Barlu (Cobourg) National Park, Northern Territory, between 2004 and 2017. We investigated the relationship between all native mammal abundance and species richness, and abundance for eight species, with the three environmental variables (distance from coast, preceding early dry and late dry season burning frequency), using an information theoretic model selection and averaging framework. Key resultsThere is a distinctive change in the fire and mammal pattern with respect to distance from the coast; that is, early and late dry season burning increasing moving inland from the coast, and a concomitant decrease or persistence in some key species on this fire gradient. ConclusionsOur results suggest that fire management in northern Australia still needs targeted research linked to active management to more effectively prevent declines of mammal populations. ImplicationsThe location and shape of Garig Gunak Barlu (Cobourg) National Park provide an excellent opportunity to undertake some natural experiments in strategic burning to investigate improved approaches to conservation in fire-prone landscapes.

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