Estimating the fraction of variance of crystallized intelligence explained by cortical surface area in early adolescence

The relationship between cortical morphology and intelligence during adolescence has been widely studied, with existing literature reporting varying degrees of association across different modeling approaches. This study provides a comprehensive comparison of model performance in investigating the association between crystallized intelligence and cortical surface area using data from 11,351 subjects in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study. We evaluate ten widely used models ranging from linear regression to graph convolutional networks across three covariate adjustment formulations: full (no adjustment), partial (age and sex adjusted), and total surface area (TSA) partial (age, sex, and TSA adjusted). Using bootstrap resampling with 50 iterations, we estimate the fraction of variance explained (FVE) for each model. Our results suggest that more complex models do not lead to higher FVE, with LASSO having the highest FVE of 15.9% (full formulation), Ridge at 10.5% (partial formulation), and Principal Component Regression (PCR) with 102 PCs at 2.5% (TSA partial formulation). Our results also reveal that the relationship between cortical surface area and crystallized intelligence is predominantly driven by global factors age, sex, and TSA, rather than by localized cortical surface area.