Facility-Level Structural Drivers of HIV Treatment Outcomes: A Multi-Level Analysis of 27,288 Patients from a Nigerian HIV Programme and Implications for PEPFAR and Global Fund Programming

Objective: To identify facility-level characteristics - including care level, ownership type, and funding model - associated with poor HIV treatment outcomes, and quantify their independent contributions after adjustment for patient-level clinical factors. Design: Retrospective cross-sectional analysis using multivariable logistic regression with HC3 cluster-robust standard errors to account for facility-level clustering. Setting: HIV care facilities in the Nigerian national HIV programme, spanning primary health centres, secondary health facilities, and tertiary hospitals. Participants: 27,288 HIV-positive patients enrolled on ART, from a publicly available de-identified Quality of Care dataset. Main outcome measures: Composite poor outcome (poor ART adherence, treatment interruption, or mortality); individual outcomes including poor adherence rate, mortality, ART interruption, and diagnosis-to-ART delay exceeding 90 days. Results: Primary health centres had 15.4% composite poor outcome versus 10.2% at tertiary hospitals. After adjustment for patient age, sex, WHO stage, and CD4 count, primary health centre patients had 95% higher odds of poor outcome (OR=1.95; 95%CI 1.45-2.61; p<0.001). NGO-funded facilities had 24% higher odds (OR=1.24; 95%CI 1.10-1.39; p<0.001) and federally funded facilities 25% higher odds (OR=1.25; 95%CI 1.06-1.48; p=0.008). Female sex was independently protective (OR=0.87; 95%CI 0.79-0.96; p=0.003). Diagnosis-to-ART delays exceeded 90 days in 47.3% of patients, with significant variation by facility level (chi-squared=49.4, p<0.001). Conclusions: Facility level and funding model independently predict HIV treatment outcomes after patient-level adjustment. Primary health centres and NGO/federally funded facilities may require targeted quality improvement support. These findings have direct implications for PEPFAR, the Global Fund, and national HIV programme managers.