Epidemiology-Informed Graph Neural Networks for Predicting and Interpreting Transmissible Hospital-Acquired Infections: A Retrospective Cohort and Simulation Study

Transmissible hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) arise from complex, time-varying interactions among patients, healthcare workers, and clinical environments. Although data-driven approaches like graph neural networks (GNNs) effectively model these contacts, they often function as black boxes that over-look established epidemiological principles, limiting interpretability and clinical trust. Inspired by physics-informed neural networks, we propose a epidemiology-informed GNN (EIGNN) framework for patient-level state transitions prediction in dynamic hospital settings, integrating mechanistic epidemiological models into GNNs in a principled manner. Patient-level risk factors learned from dynamic contact networks are jointly leveraged to infer latent epidemiological states, predict state transitions across multiple horizons, and estimate key epidemiological parameters, including transmission and recovery rates. We evaluate the approach on a real-world hospital-onset COVID-19 cohort and two public datasets simulating viral and bacterial HAIs. Across multiple architectures and horizons, EIGNNs achieves AUC-ROC up to 98.46% while providing interpretable, mechanistically consistent insights, offering a transparent tool for infection prevention and control.