SEIR-IoT cyber-physical architecture with dual parametric coupling for epidemic scenario simulation using synthetic biomedical signals

This study presents a proof-of-concept cyber-physical architecture integrating a SEIR epidemiological model (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered), implemented in MATLAB, with a simulated Internet of Things (IoT) acquisition and transmission stage based on the ESP32 microcontroller and the ThingSpeak platform. The system generates synthetic biomedical signals of body temperature and peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2), structured across three levels: circadian variation, scheduled pathological episodes, and Gaussian noise. These signals feed a dual parametric coupling function that dynamically updates the SEIR transmission parameter as a combined function of body temperature and oxygen saturation deviations from their clinical reference values. The proposed architecture is organized into four functional phases: measurement, communication, computational processing, and feedback. Five simulated clinical scenarios were evaluated, ranging from normal conditions (T = 36.5 {degrees}C, SpO2 = 97%) to fever with severe hypoxia (T = 38.5 {degrees}C, SpO2 = 88%), yielding basic reproduction number (R0) values between 4.20 and 5.38, and peak infected proportions between 29.9% and 35.2% of the simulated population (N = 1,000). A sensitivity analysis on the coupling coefficients, with {+/-}50% variation from nominal values, showed that the oxygen saturation coefficient is the most influential parameter on R0 (range = 0.76) compared to the thermal coefficient (range = 0.42), with monotonic and predictable behavior across the entire evaluated parametric space. The primary contribution of this work is system integration: we propose a reproducible platform connecting biomedical simulation, IoT communication, and epidemiological modeling through parametric coupling in a controlled environment. All data used are entirely synthetic; a retrospective calibration with real Colombian data from the first epidemic wave of 2020 confirmed the epidemiological consistency of the model, with a calibrated R0 of 1.85 and a Pearson correlation of 0.930. Results should be interpreted as evidence of architectural feasibility, not as clinical or epidemiological validation. Author SummaryThe COVID-19 pandemic made it clear that epidemiological surveillance systems need tools that combine accessible technology with mathematical models capable of anticipating disease spread. In this work, we built a proof-of-concept platform connecting three elements: a low-cost electronic sensor based on the ESP32 microcontroller, a cloud communication platform (ThingSpeak), and a mathematical model that simulates how an epidemic spreads through a population. The sensor generates synthetic data on body temperature and oxygen saturation that, through a mathematical formula we designed, dynamically modify the rate of contagion in the model. We evaluated five clinical scenarios, ranging from normal conditions to fever with severe hypoxia, and analyzed how sensitive the results are to changes in the system parameters. We found that oxygen saturation has a greater influence on the estimated contagion potential than body temperature. Although all data are synthetic, this platform demonstrates that it is possible to integrate low-cost sensors with epidemiological models in real time, opening a viable pathway for early warning systems in resource-limited settings.