Geospatial Impact Indexing of Agricultural Incidents: A Multi-Criteria Risk Assessment in the U.S. Midwest

Traditional agricultural safety assessments often rely on raw incident counts that emphasize exposure but underrepresent outcome severity. This study presents a multi-criteria impact framework to distinguish frequency-driven activity patterns from severity-driven risk across the U.S. Midwest. Agricultural incident records from 2012 to 2023 across seven states were analyzed using descriptive statistics, county-level mapping, and quartic kernel density estimation. Comparative impact indices were constructed using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geometric-Fuzzy AHP weighting schemes to integrate incident frequency, outcome severity, and post-incident survivability. Results indicate that while overall incident frequency is strongly concentrated in northwestern Iowa, reflecting intensive agricultural activity, fatal outcomes exhibit a broader spatial footprint extending across central and northern Iowa and into central-southern Minnesota. Severity-weighted mapping further consolidates northwestern Iowa and the Minnesota-Iowa corridor as dominant high-impact zones. At the regional scale, Geometric-Fuzzy AHP produced consistently lower mean scores and reduced dispersion than AHP, yielding smoother spatial gradients while preserving the primary hotspot structure. These findings demonstrate that frequency-based mapping alone fails to capture the multi-dimensional nature of agricultural risk. By explicitly linking incident locations with survival infrastructure, this research provides an evidence-based framework for targeting safety interventions and improving rural emergency medical service planning.