Temporal changes in allele frequency facilitate detection of adaptive variants in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) breeding programs

In quantitative genetics, candidate SNPs are identified through genotype-phenotype associations inferred with genome-wide association studies (GWAS). In this study, we explore an alternative approach to detect genetic variants with non-neutral effects by tracking temporal trends in allele frequency in a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) breeding population over an eight-year period, from which signals of selection may be inferred. Selection signatures were inferred with a generalized linear model, where we modeled trends in allele frequency as a function of time (crossing year). These signatures of selection were used to prioritize variants. Associations between phenotypic performance and individual load of prioritized variants were then investigated. Furthermore, we assessed whether incorporating selection information into a genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) model improves model performance in terms of quality of fit and prediction ability. Our findings indicate that the inferred signals of selection are effective in identifying non-neutral variants. Variants under strong negative selection were associated with a decrease in protein content adjusted for grain yield (p-value < 0.01), while genetic variants that had been under moderate to high levels of positive selection were associated with increased grain yield (p-value < 0.01). However, incorporating selection information did not improve prediction accuracy. In conclusion, temporal trends in allele frequency can be used to detect non-neutral variants. The proposed approach may hence complement traditional quantitative genetic methods for detecting non-neutral genetic variation. This approach may allow breeders to detect non-neutral variants earlier in the breeding cycle, without resorting to phenotypic data.