A Comparison of Diagnostic Models and Prognostic Scores of ACLF: Towards Global Harmonization
Hu, M.; Luo, J.; Verma, N.; Garg, P.; Taneja, S.; Carbonell-Asins, J. A.; Ballester, M. P.; Qi, T.; Jameie-Oskooei, S.; Cai, Q.; Liang, X.; Li, J.; Wu, T.; Li, J.; Li, P.; Zhou, Q.; Xin, J.; Shi, D.; Jiang, J.; Qiang, W.; Hong, C.; Chen, X.; Zhu, B.; Feng, T.; Zheng, J.; Huang, Y.; Ye, F.; Lin, B.; Chen, J.; Mookerjee, R. P.; Huang, Y.; You, S.; Engelmann, C.; Chen, Y.; Duseja, A.; Li, J.; Jalan, R.
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Background and AimsAcute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is associated with high short-term mortality, but substantial heterogeneity among existing diagnostic and prognostic models results in inconsistent patient identification and risk assessment. We conducted a systematic head-to-head comparison of major ACLF diagnostic and prognostic models to evaluate concordance, short-term mortality prediction and clinical utility, with the goal of informing harmonization of ACLF assessment. MethodsWe analysed 3,370 patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis in the COSSH cohort, with external validation in an independent Ambi-Spective cohort from India (n=2,055). Five ACLF diagnostic models were evaluated for identification of patients at risk of 28-day mortality. Reclassification was assessed using net reclassification improvement. Prognostic scores were compared using concordance index, integrated discrimination improvement, calibration, and decision-curve analysis. ResultsDiagnostic frameworks identified markedly different proportions of ACLF. A-TANGO and COSSH-ACLF classified the largest high-risk populations while maintaining substantial short-term mortality and balanced sensitivity-specificity profiles. Compared with COSSH-ACLF, A-TANGO improved net reclassification by 7.7%, with further gains versus EASL-CLIF (11.8%), APASL-ACLF (36.4%), and NACSELD-ACLF (45.9%). In the external cohort, A-TANGO and COSSH-ACLF showed similar discrimination and identified comparable proportions of patients. Combined application of the two models delineated three clinically meaningful strata, identifying a discordant intermediate-risk group with approximately 11% 28-day mortality. Among prognostic scores, COSSH-ACLF II and A-TANGO OF scores demonstrated strong and complementary performance across cohorts. ConclusionsOutcome-anchored ACLF definitions converge in identifying patients at highest short-term risk across diverse populations. Alignment between A-TANGO and COSSH-ACLF, together with identification of an intermediate-risk phenotype, supports a data-driven framework for improving consistency and advancing global harmonization of ACLF diagnosis and risk stratification.
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