The epidemiological scenario of leptospirosis in Brazil from 2015 to 2024: An ecological study of socio-environmental and climatic determinants.

Background: Leptospirosis is a neglected tropical disease with substantial public health impact in Brazil, closely associated with socio-environmental vulnerabilities and climatic extremes. This study analyzed the epidemiological profile, spatiotemporal distribution, and climatic influences on leptospirosis incidence and lethality in Brazil from 2015 to 2024. Methods: An ecological time-series study was conducted using secondary data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN). Variables included geographic region, probable infection environment, occupational, and educational level (ISCED-2011). The spatiotemporal correlation between disease incidence and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) anomalies was assessed using the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. Results: A total of 31,397 cases were notified, with an annual average of 3,140 cases. The South and North regions exhibited the highest incidence rates, while the Northeast and Southeast presented lethality rates above the national average (9.20%). A marked reduction in notifications occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. Contaminations occurred predominantly in the domiciliary environment (64%). Rural workers (27.45%) and civil construction workers (18.63%) were the most affected occupational groups, with a higher incidence among illiterate and low-education populations. Climatic analysis revealed a positive spatial correlation between El Nino intensification and leptospirosis incidence in the South and Southeast, and a negative correlation in specific Northeastern states. Conclusion: The dynamics of leptospirosis in Brazil are complex and multifactorial, strongly influenced by macroclimatic variations and driven by deficits in basic sanitation and urbanization. Mitigating the disease burden requires sustained, region-specific public health strategies, targeted infrastructure improvements, and enhanced epidemiological surveillance to address underreporting.