Combined Effects of Severe Immunocompromise and Prolonged Virus Shedding on Within-Host SARS-CoV-2 Evolution in COVID-19

Background: Prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection in immunocompromised individuals may accelerate virus evolution within the host, raising concerns about the virus evading immunity, developing resistance, and forming novel variants of concern. However, the determinants and public health implications of within-host viral evolution in this population remain incompletely understood. Methods: We performed longitudinal analyses of SARS-CoV-2 genomes from 91 patients with COVID-19 who were classified as being severely or moderately immunocompromised. Using serial measurements of viral RNA loads and infectious titers, we modeled the shedding dynamics of the virus and stratified the infected cases by upper respiratory virus shedding duration to assess associations with within-host evolutionary dynamics. Results: Shedding modeling identified two profiles of shedding duration: intermediate and long. The long shedding profile (shedding lasting >21 days) was found in 14.8% of moderately immunocompromised cases and 72.1% of severely immunocompromised cases. Frequent single-nucleotide variants accumulated specifically in severely immunocompromised individuals with the long shedding phenotype, correlating positively with shedding duration. By contrast, mutations remained limited in moderately immunocompromised individuals with the long shedding phenotype and in severely immunocompromised individuals with the intermediate shedding phenotype. We identified mutations in the spike receptor-binding domain associated with monoclonal antibody resistance; however, we found no fitness-enhancing mutations for inter-host transmission, and antiviral drug resistance mutations were rare. Instead, mutations were introduced frequently and randomly across the entire viral genome. Conclusions: Prolonged upper respiratory virus shedding exceeding 21 days combined with severe immunocompromise is a risk factor of the accumulation of within-host SARS-CoV-2 mutations. Although no variants of concern emerged, the introduction of genome-wide random mutations suggests that the risk for novel variant generation cannot be excluded. These findings highlight the need for intensive antiviral strategies to limit shedding duration to less than 21 days in severely immunocompromised patients, and for immunological investigations to elucidate the host factors underlying residual shedding control in those who achieve clearance within this threshold.