SPLIT: Safety Prioritization for Long COVID Drug Repurposing via a Causal Integrated Targeting Framework

Long COVID affects millions of people worldwide, yet no disease-modifying treatment has been approved, and existing interventions have shown only modest and inconsistent benefits. A key reason for this limited progress is that current computational drug repurposing pipelines do not match well with the clinical reality of Long COVID. These patients often have persistent, multi-systemic symptoms and may already be taking multiple medications, making treatment safety a primary concern. However, most repurposing workflows still treat safety as a downstream filter and rely on disease-associated targets rather than causal drivers. They also assume that the findings of one analysis would generalize across the diverse presentations of Long COVID. We introduce SPLIT, a safety-first repurposing framework that addresses these limitations. SPLIT prioritizes safety at the start of the candidate evaluation, integrates complementary causal inference strategies to identify likely driver genes, and uses a counterfactual substitution design to compare drugs within specific cohort contexts. When applied to cognitive and respiratory Long COVID cohorts, SPLIT revealed three main findings. First, drugs with similar predicted efficacy could have very different predicted safety profiles. Second, the drugs flagged as unfavorable were often different between the two cohorts, showing that drug prioritization is phenotype-specific. Third, SPLIT flagged 18 drugs currently under active investigation in Long COVID trials as having unfavorable predicted profiles. SPLIT provides a practical framework to identify safer, more context-appropriate candidates earlier in the process, supporting more targeted and better-tolerated treatment strategies for Long COVID.