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LLM-Driven Target Trial Emulation with Human-in-the-Loop Validation for Randomized Trial: Automated Protocol Extraction and Real-World Outcome Evaluation{Psi}

Dey, S. K.; Qureshi, A. I.; Shyu, C.-R.

2026-04-13 health informatics
10.64898/2026.04.09.26350523 medRxiv
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Target trial emulation (TTE) enables causal inference from observational data but remains bottlenecked by manual, expert-dependent protocol operationalization. While large language models (LLMs) have advanced clinical knowledge extraction and code generation, their ability to automate end-to-end TTE workflows remains largely unexplored. We present an LLM-driven framework using retrieval-augmented generation to extract the five core TTE design parameters from the Carotid Revascularization and Medical Management for Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis Trial (CREST-2) protocol and generate executable phenotyping pipelines for real-world EHR data. The performance of the framework was evaluated along two dimensions. First, protocol extraction accuracy was assessed against a gold-standard checklist of trial design components using precision, recall, and F1-score metrics. Second, outcome validity was evaluated through population-level concordance analyses comparing EHR-derived outcomes with published trial endpoints using standardized mean difference, observed-to-expected ratios, confidence interval overlap, and two-proportion z-tests. Further, Human-in-the-loop validation assessed the correctness of extracted clinical logic and phenotype definitions. Together, these evaluations demonstrate a structured approach for assessing LLM-driven protocol-to-pipeline translation for scalable real-world evidence generation.

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