Theoretical estimate of the effective pKa of titratable lipids using continuum electrostatics

The apparent pKa of ionizable lipids in lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) is a key determinant of RNA encapsulation during formulation and endosomal release after cellular uptake. However, it is difficult to predict the effective pKa of a given ionizable lipid solely from its solution pKa, because it is sensitive to the membranes composition, as well as solution conditions such as the salt concentration. We developed a simple continuum electrostatics model, based on Gouy-Chapman theory, to predict the shift in effective pKa for ionizable lipids in lipid bilayers as a function of salt concentration and membrane composition. We derive equations for the surface potential and fraction of lipids charged, which are solved self-consistently as a function of solution pH to extract the titration curve and effective pKa. The model shows that the shift in effective pKa is largest when the concentration of titratable lipid is high, and the effect is diminished by increasing salt concentration. We provide a python implementation of the model and an interactive notebook that will allow users to further easily explore the predicted pKa shifts as a function of formulation variables.