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Epidemiology of Venezuelan haemorrhagic fever in Barinas state, Venezuela

Garcia, M.-M.; Rodriguez, X.; Lopez, S. J.; Reyes Dorante, J. J.; Aldana, E. J.; Orduno, N. E.; Lugo, A.; Salazar, D.; Carvallo, N.; Rivas, Y.; Estofolete, C. F.; Nogueira, M. L.; Lezcano-Coba, C.; Galue, J.; Juarez, Y.; Donnelly, C. A.; Narciso Franco, J.; Carrera, J.-P.

2026-04-08 epidemiology
10.64898/2026.04.04.26348925 medRxiv
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Background Venezuelan haemorrhagic fever (VHF), caused by Guanarito virus (GTOV), is a zoonotic disease endemic to the western plains of Venezuela. Despite decades of recognition, its epidemiology and clinical profile remain poorly characterised. Methodology We analysed individual level data from standardised case report forms submitted to the Venezuelan National Epidemiological Surveillance System between 2017 and 2024 for suspected VHF cases in Barinas, Apure, and Portuguesa. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were examined to characterise temporal and geographical patterns and to define the clinical profile of VHF compared with endemic arboviral infections. Principal Findings Among 480 suspected cases, 72 (15.0%) were laboratory confirmed GTOV infections. Confirmed cases occurred predominantly in men engaged in agricultural or service related occupations, with the highest prevalence among individuals aged 46 to 90 years. A marked seasonal pattern was observed, with most cases occurring between September and January. The most frequently reported symptoms included headache, haemorrhage, sore throat, and diarrhoea. Compared with other endemic arboviral infections, GTOV was more strongly associated with headache, myalgia, sore throat, haemorrhage, and abdominal pain, delineating a distinct clinical phenotype relative to diseases caused by encephalitic alphaviruses, chikungunya virus, dengue virus, and Zika virus. The case fatality ratio among laboratory confirmed cases was 36.1% (95% CI: 25.1 to 48.3). GTOV infection was independently associated with mortality (adjusted relative risk [aRR] 3.66; 95% CI 2.28 to 5.87; p < 0.001), underscoring its substantial clinical severity. Conclusion GTOV remains endemically transmitted in western Venezuela, disproportionately affecting older men engaged in agricultural and service related occupations. Its seasonality and clinical phenotype, characterised by haemorrhage, sore throat, and gastrointestinal symptoms, highlight the need for clinical awareness and improved differential diagnosis, particularly in remote endemic settings with limited access to laboratory testing.

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