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Divergent avian strains drive an off-season influenza A peak in municipal wastewater

Jaffe, A. L.; Zulli, A.; Duong, D.; Shelden, B.; Goldman, M.; Richardson, M.; Wolfe, M. K.; Boehm, A.

2026-04-04 epidemiology
10.64898/2026.04.02.26350079 medRxiv
Show abstract

Wastewater sequencing is an increasingly valuable tool in tracking the spread of infectious disease agents across space and time in areas of dense human settlement. Among pathogens that can be readily detected by this approach is influenza A, which follows predictable patterns of prevalence through the winter months in North America. Here, we leverage routine surveillance of a municipal wastewater treatment plant in Northern California to describe an atypical, off-season spike in influenza A concentrations that rivals that of the winter respiratory virus season. Drawing upon metagenomic data generated through hybrid-capture sequencing, we assemble and subsequently characterize fragments of divergent influenza genomes that appear to derive predominantly from the avian H16 clade. These strains exhibit close evolutionary relationships to influenza isolated from migratory shorebirds, hinting at potential host species and mechanisms of geographic spread. Analysis of read abundances suggest that these avian strains dominate the pool of influenza circulating during the summer months, when typical human-infecting strains are essentially absent. Together, our results expand the value of wastewater sequencing to encompass sensitive tracking of outbreaks within animals in interface regions where human settlement abuts wildlands, increasing overall pandemic preparedness.

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