Reliance on Prior Expectations in Psychosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Perceptual Tasks

Background: The highly influential predictive processing theory of psychosis posits that symptoms arise from imbalances in the weighting of predictions (priors) and sensory evidence. Despite this theory's increasing prominence, studies often present conflicting results. This is particularly problematic as findings from single tasks with modest sample sizes are frequently used to advance a theory for a generalised altered reliance on priors in psychosis. Methods: This study presents a random-effects, multi-level meta-analysis (PROSPERO CRD42024574379) evaluating evidence for aberrant reliance on priors in psychosis across perceptual tasks. The search identified articles in Embase, MEDLINE, APA PsycINFO, and APA PsycArticles published between 1st January 2005 and 31st October 2024, with risk of bias assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Included articles (34 results from 27 studies) compared adults with schizophrenia-spectrum psychosis (SZ; n = 904) to healthy controls (n = 1,039) on behavioural measures representing reliance on priors. Results: Results provided no evidence for atypical reliance on priors in psychosis (g = .03, 95% CI [-0.27, 0.34]; p = .818) or associations with delusions (6 results; SZ = 183; r = -.16, 95% CI [-0.51, 0.19]; p = .293) or hallucinations (10 results; SZ = 370; r = .04, 95% CI [-0.28, 0.36]; p = .780). In contrast with the theory that psychosis may differentially affect priors at different levels of the cognitive hierarchy, a sub-group analysis indicated that a two-level hierarchical model of priors did not account for conflicting results (F(1,32) = 0.1, p = .758). Conclusion: These findings do not suggest that psychosis is associated with a generalised predictive processing deficit spanning multiple aspects of perception. Key words: psychosis, schizophrenia, predictive processing, prior expectations, perception