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SafeGene:A Novel Computational Platform for Predictive Genetic Screening of Offspring Disease Risk Using Region-Specific Population Genetics, Mendelian Inheritance Models, and Consanguinity Coefficient Analysis in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council States

ahmed, a. K.; Rodaini, s.

2026-03-30 genetic and genomic medicine
10.64898/2026.03.28.26349627 medRxiv
Show abstract

Background: Saudi Arabia bears a disproportionate burden of autosomal recessive genetic disorders, driven by consanguineous marriage rates of 50 to 58% and elevated carrier frequencies for conditions such as sickle cell disease (carrier rate up to 25%), betathalassemia (12%), and spinal muscular atrophy (6%). The existing premarital screening program screens for only two conditions. We developed SafeGene, a computational platform that expands predictive genetic screening to 50+ conditions using region specific population genetics. Methods: SafeGene integrates five risk calculation engines: (1) Mendelian inheritance models for AR, AD, XR, and XD conditions; (2) Hardy Weinberg equilibrium based carrier probability estimation using Saudi, Gulf, and global databases; (3) a six level consanguinity coefficient calculator (F = 0 to 1/8) with risk amplification multipliers; (4) multifactorial polygenic risk models for 12 complex diseases; and (5) maternal age dependent trisomy risk curves. Built using React.js, Node.js/Express, and MongoDB with bilingual Arabic/English support. Results: The platform encompasses 50 genetic conditions across 12 categories. Validation against published Saudi data demonstrated concordance with observed disease frequencies. Economic modeling projects that expanding screening could prevent 2,800 to 4,200 affected births annually, yielding savings of SAR 1.2 to 2.8 billion ($320 to 746 million USD) per year. Conclusions: SafeGene represents a scalable, evidence-based digital health solution for comprehensive genetic screening addressing the unique population genetics of consanguineous Gulf societies. The platform is protected under pending patent applications in South Africa (CIPC) and Saudi Arabia (SAIP).

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