Increased Risk of Pulmonary Embolism Following SARS-CoV-2 Activity in Ontario, Canada

Background: SARS-CoV-2 infection is an established prothrombotic trigger, yet the population-level temporal relationship between circulating viral activity and pulmonary embolism (PE) remains poorly characterized. We aimed to evaluate the short-term association between respiratory viral activity and PE hospitalizations, accounting for specific temporal lags. Methods: We conducted a population-level time-series analysis of incident PE hospitalizations in Ontario, Canada, from 2011 to 2024. Using distributed lag non-linear models, we assessed the association between standardized weekly activity levels of SARS-CoV-2, influenza A/B, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and PE risk over a 5-week lag period. Relative risks (RR) per standard deviation (SD) increase in viral activity were estimated via negative binomial regression using cross-basis terms to account for both exposure-response and lag-response non-linearities. Models were adjusted for Fourier seasonal terms and secular trends. Findings: Among 70,670 incident PE cases identified between 2011 and 2024, SARS-CoV-2 activity demonstrated a significant temporal association with PE. A cumulative RR increase of 20% per SD in SARS-CoV-2 activity was observed over the five weeks following exposure (RR 1.20; 95% CI 1.05-1.37). The risk followed a distinct delay trajectory: weekly cumulative RRs peaked at week 3 (RR 1.21; 95% CI 1.01-1.45). For the 2020-2024 period, influenza A also showed an association peaking at week 3 without statistical significance (RR 1.17; 95% CI 0.95-1.45). Interpretation: Increased population-level SARS-CoV-2 activity is associated with a heightened risk of PE, peaking at approximately the third week. This delayed peak suggests a protracted thrombo-inflammatory window, likely driven by sustained endothelial injury. These findings highlight the vascular burden of COVID-19 and suggest that infection prevention measures, including vaccination, may provide significant downstream protection against thromboembolic disease.