Characterizing Autonomic Dysfunction during Resuscitation in Sepsis using Multiscale Entropy

RationaleAutonomic dysfunction is a hallmark of sepsis pathophysiology, yet its quantification remains challenging. Multiscale entropy (MSE) derived from heart rate variability (HRV) offers a dynamic measure of physiological complexity and may serve as a biomarker of early deterioration associated with subsequent organ failure, vasopressor escalation, or mortality. ObjectiveTo determine whether MSE computed across multiple temporal scales during the first 24 hours of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission is associated with short-term mortality and longer-term organ dysfunction in patients with sepsis, and whether these relationships vary across vasopressor exposure. Unlike prior studies that focused on short-term HRV metrics, we applied MSE across multiple temporal scales and incorporated these features into machine learning models to evaluate their prognostic utility in septic shock. MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included adult ICU sepsis patients at Emory University Hospital from January 2016 to December 2019. Of 2,076 eligible patients, 958 were propensity matched into two cohorts: fluids-only and fluids-plus-vasopressor, with norepinephrine as the primary vasopressor. High-resolution electrocardiogram (ECG) waveforms were analyzed to compute MSE across 20 temporal scales. Machine learning models using (1) MSE features alone and (2) MSE combined with demographic and vital sign data (MSE-DV) were compared against traditional HRV measures based model and severity of illness scores for predicting outcomes. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), with a primary outcome of mortality at day 7 and secondary outcome of persistent organ dysfunction at day 28. ResultsIn the fluids-plus-vasopressor cohort, MSE-based models demonstrated superior predictive performance for 7-day mortality (AUROC 0.84) compared to severity of illness scores (AUROC 0.64). MSE-DV models also predicted organ dysfunction including 28-day renal (AUROC 0.75), neurological (AUROC 0.79), and respiratory (AUROC 0.71) dysfunction. Patients receiving second-line and third-line vasopressors and corticosteroids exhibited progressively lower MSE values, particularly at mid-range and long-range scales. ConclusionMSE features in the first 24 hours of ICU stay predict mortality and organ dysfunction with higher discrimination than traditional severity of illness scores. Future work should validate these findings, assess longitudinal MSE trends, and race-specific autonomic patterns to refine predictive models.