Predicting progression-free survival in glioblastoma: influence of the perilesional oedema and white-matter disconnectome

BackgroundGlioblastoma (GBM), Isocitrate dehydrogenase-wildtype (IDH-wt) is characterised by diffuse infiltration, with progression often arising from perilesional tissue and occult white-matter damage. We investigated whether radiomics from the T2/FLAIR-defined oedema and the structural disconnectome improve prediction of progression-free survival (PFS). MethodsWe retrospectively analysed 387 adults with newly diagnosed GBM, IDH-wt treated at a single tertiary centre (2005-2020). A deep-learning pipeline segmented enhancing tumour, non-enhancing tumour, and oedema on pre-operative MRI; lesion masks were propagated to normative tractography to derive disconnectome maps. 3-D shape radiomic features extracted for each segmented region underwent appropriate feature selection. Finally, 10 tumour and 9 oedema radiomics were combined with 6 clinical features to train 3 survival models (Random Survival Forest (RSF), XGBoost, Cox proportional hazards (CPH)) that were evaluated on a held-out 20% test set using Harrells C-index, Kaplan-Meier risk stratification and time-dependent ROC curves. ResultsThe best performance was achieved by RSF using all clinical and radiomic features (C-index 0.665 vs 0.595 for clinical features only, p=0.088). Models including oedema radiomics outperformed those using tumour radiomics alone, and disconnectome features, derived from both tumour and oedema regions, were repeatedly selected among the top predictors across algorithms. Combining radiomic and clinical features improved risk stratification and 12-month early-versus-late recurrence classification (AUC 0.704 vs 0.582 for clinical features alone). ConclusionsIntegrating perilesional oedema and white-matter disconnectome MR features with clinical and molecular data enhances prediction of PFS in GBM, IDH-wt. These network-aware, multimodal survival models may support personalised risk-adapted treatment strategies pending external validation. Key Points- GBM IDH-wt exhibits a high recurrence rate despite aggressive treatment. - Addition of high-dimensional oedema and disconnectome radiomic features to clinical features showed consistent improvement in the test performance of 3 ML models. - This can support informed clinical decision-making. Importance of the StudyPrediction of progression free survival (PFS) for a patient with highly recurrent glioblastoma IDH-wt traditionally relies on clinical history, demographics, and molecular markers of the tumour. Recent literature reveals the tumours disruptive nature through its invasion of white-matter tracts and identifies its microenvironment, particularly the perilesional oedema, as a harbour of treatment resistant tumour cells. This study is the first to combine high-dimensional radiomic features of the tumour, the oedema, and their disconnectome with clinical and treatment factors to predict PFS. Using 3 model architectures (XGBoost, RSF, and CoxPH), we demonstrate consistent directional improvements in performance, on addition of radiomic features to clinical baseline models. Furthermore, oedema and disconnectome radiomics are identified as top predictor features across algorithms. This proof-of-concept study provides a reproducible multimodal pipeline, reaffirms the usability of MR radiomics, and identifies features of the oedema and the structural connectome as promising biomarkers, demanding large-scale external validation.