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Integration of clinical and genomic data defines prognostic phenotypes in resected perihilar cholangiocarcinoma: a national multicenter study

Lopez-Lopez, V.; Lucas-Ruiz, F.; Maina, C.; Anton-Garcia, A. I.; Llado, L.; Vila-Tura, M.; Serrano, T.; Lopez-Andujar, R.; Catalayud, D.; Perez-Rojas, J.; Lopez-Baena, J. A.; Peligros, I.; Sabater-Orti, L.; Mora-Oliver, I.; Alfaro-Cervello, C.; Pacheco, D.; Asensio-Diaz, E.; Madrigal-Rubiales, B.; Dopazo, C.; Gomez-Gavara, C.; Salcedo-Allende, M. T.; Gomez-Bravo, M. A.; Bernal-Bellido, C.; Borrero-Martin, J. J.; Serrablo, A.; Serrablo, L.; Horndler, C.; Blanco-Fernandez, G.; Jaen-Torrejimeno, I.; Diaz-Delgado, M.; Eshmuminov, D.; Hernandez-Kakauridze, S.; Vidal-Correoso, D.; Martinez-Caceres,

2026-02-17 transplantation
10.64898/2026.02.16.26346384 medRxiv
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Background & AimsPerihilar cholangiocarcinoma is an aggressive malignancy with clinical heterogeneity and poor long-term outcomes after resection. Current prognostic assessment relies mainly on anatomical staging and pathological features, which incompletely capture the entire postoperative risk. We aimed to determine whether integrative analysis of clinical, surgical, pathological and tumor genomic data could improve time-resolved, individualized recurrence-risk prediction after curative-intent resection. MethodsWe performed a multicenter retrospective study including patients undergoing curative-intent resection for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma in ten Spanish hospitals (2003-2023). Overall and disease-free survival were analyzed using Cox models. Outcome-agnostic clinical phenotypes were derived by unsupervised clustering of clinical and surgical features. Targeted tumor sequencing of cancer-associated hotspot regions and selected genes was performed. Prognostic models integrating clinical and genomic data were trained and evaluated in independent training/test sets using penalized and latent-component Cox frameworks, with time dependent discrimination. ResultsThe final cohort comprised 142 patients, with a median follow-up of 26.4 months. Recurrence occurred in 61.3% of patients, and 53.5% died during follow-up. Classical pathological factors were strongly associated with survival and recurrence. Unsupervised outcome-agnostic clustering identified three reproducible clinical phenotypes with markedly different recurrence patterns and survival, only partially explained by anatomical staging. Integrative clinical-genomic modelling further improved recurrence-risk prediction, achieving high discrimination in independent validation (time-dependent AUC [~]0.8). Moreover, the integrative model assigned higher risk over time to patients who relapsed. Patients combining unfavorable clinical phenotype with high genomic-derived risk exhibited a high probability of early recurrence. ConclusionsIntegrated clinical phenotyping and targeted genomic profiling substantially refine recurrence-risk stratification after resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma beyond anatomical staging alone. This provides a pragmatic framework for risk-adapted postoperative surveillance and therapeutic decision-making. Impact and ImplicationsThis study provides a data-driven framework integrating clinical, surgical and targeted genomic information to refine prognostic stratification after resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma, addressing the limitations of anatomy-based staging in capturing biological heterogeneity. The results are particularly relevant for clinicians managing postoperative surveillance and adjuvant strategies, as they identify patient subgroups with markedly different risks of early recurrence despite similar conventional staging. In practical terms, the combination of unsupervised clinical phenotyping and a targeted, biologically informed genomic panel could support risk-adapted follow-up intensity, selection for adjuvant or experimental therapies, and enrolment into clinical trials. While prospective validation is required before routine implementation, this approach offers a feasible and interpretable pathway toward precision postoperative management in a highly aggressive malignancy.

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