Unmet palliative care needs in England and Wales: population-based estimates and future projections (2025-2050)

IntroductionWith global populations ageing, demand for palliative care is increasing. Population-level assessments of unmet palliative care needs are essential for strategic planning, yet rigorous methods to estimate unmet needs are lacking. This study aimed to develop methods and estimate current and future population-level prevalence of unmet palliative care needs among adults in England and Wales. MethodsSecondary analyses of data from a nationally representative post-bereavement survey in England and Wales in 2022 (n=1,194). Unmet needs in the survey sample were estimated using two methods: (1) reported unresolved symptoms and concerns using Integrated Palliative care Outcome Scale scores, cutoff [≥]34/68; and (2) reported insufficient care provision from general practitioners. These methods were combined to further provide a conservative estimate (1 and 2) and a broad estimate (1 or 2). We examined associations with unmet needs using modified Poisson regression. Age-, gender- and nation-specific sample estimates were applied to mortality data for 2022 and projections from the Office for National Statistics to calculate population-level estimates and prevalence from 2025 to 2050. ResultsIn 2022, 247,993 (46%) adult decedents in England and 17,209 (49%) in Wales had unmet palliative care needs using method 1; 244,612 (46%) and 15,280 (43%), respectively, using method 2. According to conversative and broad estimates, 32% and 61% could have unmet needs in England, and 29% and 62% in Wales. By 2050, prevalence of unmet needs are projected to rise by 21-26% in England and 14-19% in Wales depending on estimate used, with the largest absolute increase among those aged [≥]85 years. ConclusionsUnmet palliative care needs are high in England and Wales and projected to increase by 2050, regardless of method. We contrast methods based on unresolved symptoms and concerns or insufficient care provision, or both, to inform the planning and evaluating of equitable care. Key MessagesO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSO_LIAlthough understanding population-level unmet palliative care needs is critical for effective service planning, robust and standardised methods to estimate these needs remain limited. C_LI What this study addsO_LIWe use two methods to provide four estimates of population-level prevalence of unmet palliative care needs and discuss their strengths and limitations. C_LIO_LIRegardless of estimate, prevalence of unmet palliative care needs is high, ranging 32-61% in England and in 29-62% in Wales; the number of people with unmet needs is anticipated to increase by 21-26% in England and 14-19% in Wales by 2050. C_LI How this study might affect research, practice or policyO_LIThis advancement in methods to estimate unmet palliative care needs can inform the development and evaluation of population-level strategies to improve end-of-life care. C_LIO_LIOur population-level estimates do not account for multiple long-term conditions which are rising and will likely increase the complexity of needs. C_LIO_LIThere needs to be more investment in primary and community-based services to ensure high-quality symptom management and support for people and their families towards the end of life. C_LI