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Evaluation of short-term multi-target respiratory forecasts over winter 2024-25 in England using sub-ensemble contribution analyses

2026-02-18 infectious diseases Title + abstract only
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BackgroundEpidemic forecasting research often assesses ensembles and their component models using probabilistic scoring rules. Quantifying how individual models affect ensemble performance is challenging, particularly across multiple targets and spatial scales. MethodsWe present Winter 2024-25 forecasts of Influenza and COVID-19 hospital admissions in England and conduct a retrospective simulation using the operational component models. Forecasts were scored using the per capita weighted interv...

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