Cigarette and E-Cigarette Tax Impacts on America's Oldest Generation of Smokers

BackgroundAs cigarette smoking continues declining among youth and young adults, smoking rates among older Americans remain unchanged. Historically, cigarette and, more recently, e-cigarette tax policies influenced smoking behavior in younger smokers. Understanding how older smokers respond to tax changes can inform public health strategies. MethodsWe assembled a quarterly panel of state cigarette and e-cigarette tax rates using the CDC STATE System Tobacco (2000-2024) and E-Cigarette Legislation databases (2015-2024), then merged these data to individual-level survey responses from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). Our sample included all adults aged [≥]65, but our main specification included adults with a history of smoking. We estimated two-way fixed-effects population-weighted linear probability regression models of current smoking and past-year quit attempts. ResultsAmong 3,117,382 adults, 50% had a history of smoking; from which 18% currently smoked. A one-dollar tax increase was associated with current smoking: cigarette tax = -0.61-percentage points (CI = -0.94,-0.28); e-cigarette tax = +0.19-percentage-points (CI = 0.14,0.24). There was no association between cigarette taxes and quit attempts. A one-dollar increase in e-cigarette tax was associated with reduced quit attempts (-0.17-percentage-points; CI = -28,-0.06). Approaching tax parity by one dollar was associated with increased current smoking by 0.23-percentage-points (CI = 0.16,0.29) and reduced quit attempts by -0.17-percentage-points (CI = -0.29,0.05). ConclusionsOlder American smokers appear responsive to cigarette and e-cig tax changes. Policies increasing the relative cost of e-cigarettes may impede cessation and perpetuate smoking rates in older generations at the highest risk of smoking related harm. ImplicationsMany studies have investigated the impact of cigarette and e-cigarette tax changes on smoking behavior in youth or younger adults. This study adds new evidence quantifying how new cigarette and e-cigarette taxes change smoking behavior among older adults, a population yet to realize reductions in smoking despite higher risk of tobacco related harm. Analyzing large, population-based survey data, we show that older smokers change smoking behavior due to cigarette and e-cigarette taxes. Taxation of e-cig products may produce unintended harm among older smokers. Specifically, approaching tax parity may increase cigarette smoking and reduce quit attempts among older adults with a history of smoking.