Charting the Decline of the Fourth Wave: US Overdose Deaths by Race, Geography, and Substance Involvement

AimsTo characterize decreases in overdose mortality in the United States between 2023 and 2024 by substance involvement, geography, race/ethnicity, demographic, and other key dimensions. DesignPopulation-based study of national death records. SettingUnited States. Participants/casesAll individuals who died from drug overdose between January 1999 and December 2024. MeasurementsAnnual or monthly (annualized) overdose deaths per 100,000 population. Year and month of occurrence of overdose death; substance involvement; census region and division; state; county; race/ethnicity, age, and sex. FindingsAfter over two decades of mostly exponential increases, monthly data show consistent decreases in overdose deaths between June 2023 and December 2024. Decreases reflected declining illicit fentanyl-involved deaths (with and without stimulants); however, increasing trends through 2024 were still seen in deaths involving stimulants without fentanyl, and those involving xylazine. Death rates in the Northeast, South and Midwest fell to 19.5, 19.4 and 17.3 per 100,000, respectively, in December 2024, but remained elevated in the West, compared with other regions, at 27.2 per 100,000. Non-Hispanic Black and African Americans had the largest decrease in death rates in 2023-2024 falling 29.3%, but remained elevated at 36.0 per 100,000, compared to the national average of 23.7 per 100,000. Non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native individuals had the highest overdose mortality rate in 2024, at 50.8 per 100,000. ConclusionsRecent decreases in overdose deaths are encouraging and unprecedented. Racial gaps remained large but shrunk by a modest margin. The geography of the overdose crisis has shifted, with the West now the most affected region, which may have implications for the targeting of funding. The nature of the crisis is also shifting, as stimulants and xylazine continue to represent increasingly important public health challenges, and renewed attention to nonfatal aspects of addiction in the US is needed.