Genomic and pedigree-based approaches to predict parental breeding values for nut and kernel traits in almond (Prunus dulcis Mill. D. A. Webb)

The self-incompatibility, perennial growth habit, large tree size, and long juvenility present challenges in applying traditional breeding approaches in almond (Prunus dulcis Mill. D. A. Webb). Moreover, nut and kernel traits in almond are mainly controlled by a large number of small-effect quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and improving complex traits through conventional breeding approaches is slow and often inefficient. Genome-wide selection represents a promising strategy to enhance the efficiency of cultivar identification and selection of superior parents in almond breeding programs by estimating the breeding values (BVs) at early maturity. The main aim of this study was to implement genomic (GBLUP) and pedigree-based (ABLUP) prediction approaches to estimate BVs to identify the superior parental candidates for improving nut and kernel traits in almond. Here, we estimated BVs for nine traits that are commonly used in the primary evaluation stage of the almond breeding using genomic data from 61 parents and phenotypic data of 15,281 progeny derived from 205 unique families. Breeding values obtained from both approaches showed a strong correlation (r [≥] 0.94) for all traits except shell seal (r = 0.87). The population structure analysis conducted using high-quality 90K single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) indicated clear separation of the Californian, European and some old Australian almond cultivars, with considerable admixture across some cultivars. Following further validation, both prediction approaches could be useful in early identification of superior candidates. The slightly higher breeding values obtained using the GBLUP compared to the ABLUP approach suggest that accounting for within-family variations and realised genomic relationships can enhance prediction accuracy, reliability, and overall genomic prediction performance in almond.