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Estimating age patterns and grouped temporal trends in human contact patterns with Bayesian P-splines

2026-01-23 epidemiology Title + abstract only
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This paper presents a smoothing method to estimate age-specific human contact patterns and their variations over different periods. Specifically, it examines how age-specific contact patterns shift under varying conditions, such as holiday periods and levels of public health intervention. The method uses Bayesian P-splines to smooth age-specific contact rates and leverages Laplace approximations for fast Bayesian inference, significantly reducing computational complexity. The proposed methodolog...

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