Potential range shifts of the Anastrepha fraterculus complex (Diptera:Tephritidae) morphotypes: implications under climate change scenarios

The South American fruit fly Anastrepha fraterculus is a cryptic species complex that comprises at least eight morphotypes and endangers part of the fruit production across the Americas. In this study, we modeled the current and future potential distributions of the whole complex and each morphotype. Filtered occurrence data (n = 339) were analyzed against six previously selected non-collinear bioclimatic predictors. Ensemble models created with statistical and machine learning algorithms identified [~]6 million km{superscript 2} of environmentally suitable area for the complex, mainly in Brazil and Argentina. Morphotype-level analyses revealed contrasting range extension and suitable areas: Brazilian-1 exhibited the broadest distribution and environmental breadth, whereas Brazilian-2 and -3 were restricted to coastal regions. High-elevation morphotypes (Andean, Ecuadorian, Peruvian, Venezuelan) were strongly constrained by temperature, while the Mexican morphotype distribution was more related with precipitation and displayed a significant potential for expansion into Central and North America. Future projections indicated overall contractions (18-40%) of the areas presenting high-suitability for the presence of the species, along with southward range shifts and increased morphotype overlap in temperate regions; nevertheless, the remaining high-suitable area include the current zones of high production of fruits. These results provide a morphotype-explicit reference for anticipating invasion risk and support area-wide integrated pest management strategies under climate change.