Lifetime Risk of Injury-Related Hospitalization in Canada: A Rough Estimate

BackgroundInjury is one of the leading causes of hospitalization among Canadians and represents a substantial public health burden. However, at the population level, the lifetime risk of injury-related hospitalization is unknown. Estimating the lifetime risk of hospitalization due to injury among Canadians provides an intuitive and policy-relevant metric to inform the development of injury prevention strategies and health system planning. MethodsThis study used the Cumulative Risk Method to estimate the lifetime risk of at least one injury-related hospitalization among Canadians. Age-specific risks were calculated and summed under assumptions of a stable population and constant injury incidence. Estimates were adjusted for an average of 1.4 hospitalizations per person, and sensitivity analyses assessed the impact of varying this assumption. ResultsThe estimated lifetime risk of experiencing at least one injury-related hospitalization among Canadians was 42.0% (95% CI: 41.9% - 42.1%), corresponding to approximately one in every 2.4 individuals over the life course. Lifetime risk was slightly higher among females (42.1%, 95% CI: 42.0% - 42.3%) than males (41.3%, 95% CI: 41.1% - 41.4%), although males exhibited higher cumulative risk before age 65. Sensitivity analyses indicated that, under different assumptions regarding repeat hospitalizations, lifetime risk estimates ranged from 31.1% to 53.5%. DiscussionA substantial proportion of Canadians will experience at least one injury-related hospitalization over their lifetime. Estimates of lifetime risk provide a clear and easily interpretable metric that can communicate the burden of injury to the general population while highlighting to healthcare providers the importance of implementing sustained, population-level injury prevention strategies. What is already known on this topicInjury is a leading cause of hospitalization and death among Canadians, especially those under 45, and imposes a substantial healthcare and economic burden. What this study addsThis study estimates that one in every 2.4 Canadians will experience one or more injury-related hospitalizations over their lifetime. It also provides sex-specific differences and examines the impact of repeated hospitalizations on risk. How might this study affect research, practice, or policyThese findings provide a clear and easily understood measure of injury burden, which can guide public health planning, inform prevention strategies, and raise public awareness of the lifetime risk of serious injury.