The Diabetes Epidemic in Bangladesh: Trends and Forecasts (2000 to 2050)

To examine long-term trends in the prevalence and burden of diabetes among adults in Bangladesh from 2000 to 2050 using historical estimates and future projections.A descriptive epidemiological trend analysis using secondary data from the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Diabetes Atlas (2000, 2011, 2024, and 2050 projections) and prevalence estimates calibrated with the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2017- 2018.Bangladesh, South-East Asia Region. Adults aged 20-79 years included in IDF diabetes estimates; additional population-level prevalence information drawn from BDHS. Number of adults with diabetes and age-standardised diabetes prevalence. The number of adults (20-79 years) with diabetes increased from 1.8 million in 2000 to 13.9 million in 2024, and is projected to reach 23.1 million by 2050. Age-standardised prevalence rose from 10.5% in 2011 to 13.2% in 2024, with a further increase to 15.4% projected for 2050. In 2024, 39.1% of adults with diabetes remained undiagnosed. Impaired fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance affected 19.1 million and 14.5 million adults respectively in 2024, with substantial projected increases by 2050. Bangladesh ranks second highest in the South-East Asia Region in both prevalence and total number of adults with diabetes, following India. Diabetes-related mortality accounted for 31,619 deaths in 2024, and health expenditure reached USD 1.03 billion, increasing further in future projections. Bangladesh faces a rapidly escalating diabetes epidemic, marked by sharp increases in prevalence, undiagnosed cases, metabolic risk conditions, and healthcare expenditure. Without immediate public health interventions particularly lifestyle modification programmes, expanded screening, and strengthened surveillance the diabetes burden is expected to rise substantially by 2050. STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THIS STUDY{Rightarrow} We examined long-term changes in the diabetes burden among Bangladeshi adults from 2000 to 2024 and projections up to 2050. {Rightarrow}Estimates were derived from nationally representative and internationally validated data sources, including BDHS and IDF. {Rightarrow}This study uniquely combines historical trends with future forecasts to highlight the evolving epidemiology of diabetes. {Rightarrow}All data were generated following standardize and WHO-aligned assessment methods. {Rightarrow}Limited availability of continuous annual data and missing risk factor variables restricted deeper analytical exploration.