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Dynamical Systems Modeling of Bt Resistant Cornborer Population Dynamics

Rabajante, J. F.; Jacildo, A. J.; Alcantara, E. C.

2019-10-07 evolutionary biology
10.1101/795682 bioRxiv
Show abstract

Mathematical models provide insights for the design and optimization of strategies to control disease epidemics and evolution of pesticide resistance in crops. Here, we present a simple mathematical model to investigate the population dynamics of non-Bt resistant and Bt resistant cornborers in a field with refuge. In the presence of refuge, it is expected that the population of Bt resistant pests will decline due to the dilution effect (non-Bt resistant cornborers mate with Bt resistant pests). We have found that increasing the refuge size can be effective in reducing Bt resistant pests as long as there exists a relatively huge population of non-Bt resistant cornborers at the start of the simulation. This implies that refuge is useless in inhibiting the evolution of cornborers if a sufficient initial population of non-Bt resistant cornborers is absent.

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