The Implications of Over-Estimating Gene Tree Discordance on a Rapid-Radiation Species Tree (Blattodea: Blaberidae)

Patterns of discordance between gene trees and the species trees they reside in are crucial to the debate over the superiority of coalescent or concatenation approaches to tree inference. However, errors in estimating gene tree topologies obfuscate the issue by making gene trees appear erroneously discordant with the species tree. We thus test the prevalence of discordance between gene trees and their species tree using an empirical dataset for a clade with a rapid radiation (Blaberidae). We find that one model of codon evolution (FMutSel0) prefers gene trees that are less discordant, while another (SelAC) shows no such preference. We compare the species trees resulting from the selected sets of gene trees on the basis of internal consistency, predictive ability, and congruence with independent data. The species tree resulting from gene trees those chosen by FMutSel0, a set with low discordance, is the most robust and biologically plausible. Thus, we conclude that the results from FMutSel0 are better supported: simple models (i.e., GTR and ECM) infer trees with erroneously high levels of gene tree discordance. Furthermore, the amount of discordance in the set of gene trees has a large effect on the downstream phylogeny. Thus, decreasing gene tree error by lessening erroneous discordance can result in higher quality species trees. These results allow us to support relationships among blaberid cockroaches that were previously in flux as they now demonstrate molecular and morphological congruence.