Demography, genetic, and extinction process in a spatially structured population of lekking bird

Understanding the mechanisms underlying biological extinctions is a critical challenge for conservation biologists. Both deterministic (e.g. habitat loss, fragmentation) and stochastic (i.e. demographic stochasticity, Allee effect) demographic processes are involved in population decline. Simultaneously, a decrease of population size has far-reaching consequences for genetics of populations by increasing the risk of inbreeding and the effects of genetic drift, which together inevitably results in a loss of genetic diversity and a reduced effective population size (Ne). These genetic factors may retroactively affect vital rates (a phenomenon coined inbreeding depression), and therefore reduce population growth and accelerate the extinction process of small populations. To date, few studies have simultaneously examined the demographic and genetic mechanisms driving the extinction of wild populations, and have most of the time neglected the spatial structure of populations. In this study, we examined demographic and genetic factors involved in the extinction process of a spatially structured population of a lekking bird, the western capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus). To address this issue, we collected capture-recapture and genetic data over a 6-years period in Vosges mountains, France. Our study showed that the population of T. urogallus experienced a severe decline between 2010 and 2015. We did not detect any Allee effect on survival and recruitment. By contrast, individuals of both sexes dispersed to avoid small leks, suggesting a behavioral response to a mate finding Allee effect. In parallel to this demographic decline, the population showed a low genetic diversity and high inbreeding. In addition, the effective population sizes at both lek and population levels was low. Despite this, we did not detected evidence of inbreeding depression: neither survival nor recruitment were affected by individual inbreeding level. Our study underlines the benefit from combining demographic and genetic approaches to investigate processes that are involved in biological extinctions.