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Projecting national outpatient expenditure in South Korea: A scenario-based simulation of the impact of health literacy improvement

Moon, S.; Yoo, J.; Go, D.; Lee, H.

2025-11-20 health policy
10.1101/2025.11.19.25340606 medRxiv
Show abstract

The South Korean government has set policy targets to increase the share of adults with sufficient health literacy to 70% by 2030. This study aimed to estimate changes in outpatient healthcare expenditure while maintaining the current health literacy distribution (status quo) and achieving the national health literacy target by 2030 (policy target). An autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to project outpatient expenditure from 2023 to 2030. The analysis incorporated the relative cost differences between sufficient and inadequate health literacy groups based on Korea Health Panel data from 2021. A calibration factor was applied to adjust for underestimation in the policy target scenario. The results revealed that by 2030, total outpatient expenditure is projected to reach KRW 105.6 trillion under the status quo and KRW 103.7 trillion under the policy target scenario, resulting in savings of approximately KRW 1.9 trillion (1.8%).

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