Impact of a one-year interruption to vector control on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea
Galick, D. S.; Hergott, D. E. B.; Cubacuba, N. B.; Mifumu, T. A. O.; Smith, J. M.; Rivas, M. R.; Phiri, W. P.; Smith, D. L.; Guerra, C. A.; Garcia, G. A.
Show abstract
Over the last 20 years, malaria transmission on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea has declined dramatically thanks to the implementation of robust malaria control activities, centered around island-wide indoor residual spraying (IRS). In 2024 Bioko Island experienced a lapse in malaria control funding, and as a result vector control activities (including IRS) were interrupted. However, agreements with funders allowed for both a previously planned malaria indicator survey (MIS) and the subsequent implementation of indoor residual spraying (IRS) in late 2024. This study analyses routine case data from public health facilities from 2019-2024 and annual cross-sectional MIS data from 2019- 2024 using interrupted time series methods to quantify the impact of the interruption and reestablishment of control activities on Bioko Island. In 2024, the number of confirmed cases reported was 41% higher than the 2021-2023 average, and the Plasmodium falciparum prevalence rate (PfPR) rose by three percentage points. Statistical modeling estimated that 25.3% (95% CI 12.0-36.3%) of 2024 cases were avertable if control activities had been maintained, and that the interruption was associated with an increased PfPR in 2024, above previous trends (adjusted OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.05-1.29). Moreover, the reintroduction in IRS in late 2024 was found to have averted an estimated additional 7.0% (95% CI 3.0-10.2%) increase in confirmed cases. In just one year with interruptions to control, malaria transmission and burden quickly resurged on Bioko Island. However, Biokos experience demonstrates that the reestablishment of control activities can equally rapidly contain, and reverse resurgence associated with control interruptions.
Matching journals
The top 3 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Impact of four years of annually repeated indoor residual spraying (IRS) with Actellic 300CS on routinely reported malaria cases in an agricultural setting in Malawi 97%
- Impact of seasonal malaria chemoprevention timing on clinical malaria incidence dynamics in the Kedougou region, Senegal 97%
- Community access to rectal artesunate for malaria (CARAMAL): a large-scale observational implementation study in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria and Uganda 97%
Similar papers in this journal
- Ongoing long-lasting insecticide-treated net distribution efforts are insufficient to maintain high rates of use among children in rural Uganda 97%
- Subnational tailoring of malaria interventions to prioritize the malaria response in Guinea 97%
- Danger signs and management of suspected severe malaria cases at community level and in referral health facilities: an operational study in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 95%
Similar papers in this journal
- Alternative Approaches for Monitoring and Evaluation of Lymphatic Filariasis Following Mass Drug Treatment with Ivermectin, Diethylcarbamazine and Albendazole in East New Britain Province, Papua New Guinea 96%
- Human and entomological determinants of malaria transmission in the Lihir Islands of Papua New Guinea: a cross-sectional study 96%
- Human mobility and malaria risk in peri-urban and rural communities in the Peruvian Amazon 96%
Similar papers in this journal
- Malaria trends in districts that were targeted and not-targeted for seasonal malaria chemoprevention in children under five years of age in Guinea, 2014 - 2021 97%
- Evaluating the impact of two next generation long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria incidence in Uganda: an interrupted time series analysis using routine health facility data 96%
- Spatial and epidemiological drivers of P. falciparum malaria among adults in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 95%
Similar papers in this journal
- Predicting the impact of disruptions in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to the outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and possible mitigation strategies 94%
- Identifying hidden Zika hotspots in Pernambuco, Brazil: A spatial analysis 94%
- Disruptions to schistosomiasis programmes due to COVID-19: an analysis of potential impact and mitigation strategies 93%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.