Childhood socioemotional and cognitive development and Adolescents NEET (not in education, employment or training): findings from the UK Millennium Cohort Study

BackgroundThere is a growing concern about the increasing number of young people who are not in employment, education or training (NEET) globally. This study investigates the impact of concurrent cognitive and socioemotional development trajectories in childhood on NEET status in adolescence in a UK cohort. MethodWe analysed longitudinal data on 8,368 children from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Exposure trajectories of cognitive and socioemotional development from age 3 to 14 years were characterised using group-based multi-trajectory models. We used Poisson regression to examine associations between developmental trajectories and NEET status at age 17, adjusting for confounders. Population-attributable fractions were estimated to quantify NEET proportions attributable to the developmental problems. ResultsAt age 17, 3.5% of participants were NEET; of which about one-third (38%) were not economically active. Children with persistent cognitive and socioemotional development problems had a fourfold increased risk of being NEET (adjusted risk ratio [ARR] 4.0; 95% CI 2.5-6.3), and those with late socioemotional problems had threefold increased risk (3.3; 95% CI 2.2-4.9), compared to children in the no problem group. Early and resolving socioemotional and cognitive problems were not associated with being NEET. An estimated 28% (95% CI 18% to 36%) of NEET cases were attributable to cognitive and socioemotional behaviour problems in childhood. ConclusionChildhood cognitive and socioemotional development play a critical role in shaping pathways to education and employment in adolescence. Thus, policies and strategies aiming to reduce NEET should target early social and emotional skills, alongside efforts to support academic achievement. Strengths and limitations of this study{blacksquare} The study uses longitudinal data from a contemporary and representative cohort of UK children. {blacksquare}The study combines measures of cognitive ability and socioemotional behaviour during childhood, and evaluates the joint effects on youth NEET status {blacksquare}A major limitation was inability to capture transitions in the NEET status as it was measured at a single time point {blacksquare}As with most longitudinal cohort studies, missing data is inevitable and hence a challenge for analysis.