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Modelling and forecasting a potential chikungunya outbreak in France, 2025

Tegar, S.; Brass, D. P.; Purse, B. V.; Mignotte, A.; Lacour, G.; Cobbold, C. A.; White, S. M.

2025-08-13 epidemiology
10.1101/2025.08.12.25333506 medRxiv
Show abstract

Mainland France is experiencing an unprecedented number of autochthonous cases of chikungunya in multiple locations, primarily in southern France, likely linked to the recent outbreak in La Reunion and associated travel. Given the regions suitable climate and the widespread and abundant presence of Aedes albopictus, the primary European mosquito vector of chikungunya, further cases are anticipated in the coming months. Here, we apply a state-of-the-art, climate-sensitive eco-epidemiological model to forecast chikungunya transmission dynamics at affected outbreak locations. With a 2-3-month lead time in predictions of peak transmission, the model identifies foci most likely to experience severe outbreaks (e.g., Salon-de-Provence, Bernis, Castries) this year and helps to inform prioritisation and public health impact.

Matching journals

The top 4 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
● 466 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
37.9%
Similar papers in this journal
2
BMC Infectious Diseases
○ 133 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
5.3%
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3
Viruses
○ 332 papers in training set
Top 1%
4.1%
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4
Epidemics
○ 116 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
3.9%
Similar papers in this journal
50% of probability mass above
5
Parasites & Vectors
○ 60 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
3.1%
6
PLOS Global Public Health
● 344 papers in training set
Top 4%
3.1%
7
PLOS ONE
● 5266 papers in training set
Top 38%
3.1%
Similar papers in this journal
8
PLOS Computational Biology
● 1863 papers in training set
Top 11%
2.7%
9
Infectious Disease Modelling
○ 54 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
2.0%
10
BMC Public Health
○ 158 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.8%
11
Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
◐ 18 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
1.7%
12
Scientific Reports
○ 3612 papers in training set
Top 55%
1.7%
13
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
○ 37 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
1.7%
14
BMC Medicine
○ 176 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.7%
15
Infectious Diseases of Poverty
○ 11 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
1.4%
16
The Journal of Infectious Diseases
◐ 202 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.4%
17
Emerging Infectious Diseases
● 105 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.3%
18
Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
○ 14 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
1.1%
19
Epidemiology and Infection
◐ 89 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.1%
20
BMJ Global Health
● 113 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.1%
21
Nature Communications
○ 5641 papers in training set
Top 53%
1.0%
22
Emerging Microbes & Infections
○ 74 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.0%
23
One Health
○ 29 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
1.0%
24
Swiss Medical Weekly
● 15 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
0.9%
25
Open Forum Infectious Diseases
◐ 142 papers in training set
Top 3%
0.9%
26
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
○ 129 papers in training set
Top 3%
0.9%
27
The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
● 68 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.6%
28
Communications Medicine
○ 113 papers in training set
Top 5%
0.6%
29
Eurosurveillance
● 83 papers in training set
Top 1%
0.6%

"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.