Modelling the impacts of imports of non-native honeybees into the native Apis mellifera mellifera populationin Ireland

Human-mediated movement of organisms for agriculture and ecosystem services often results in hybridisation and introgression between native and non-native populations. While introgression may increase genetic diversity, it can erode unique adaptations and reduce fitness, threatening the survival of native lineages. Honey bees offer a good model with extensive records, queen trade and migratory beekeeping facilitating genetic exchange among subspecies. To explore these dynamics, we used SIMplyBee to simulated hybridisation between native Apis mellifera mellifera and non-native (C lineage) honey bee populations. We adopted the parameters from the Irish honeybee population that still maintains relatively low levels of import, but is threatened by commercial imports. The model included colony honey yield and fitness as complex polygenic traits. We simulated varying import rates, genetic correlations between fitness in native and non-native environments, and spatial distributions of introgression over 20 years, measuring levels and rate of introgression and genetic means for both traits. Increased imports accelerated introgression and induced a trade-off between higher honey yield and lower fitness, and decreasing genetic correlations between environments amplified fitness decline. Spatial simulations showed the spread of introgression across the entire simulated area. Halting imports reversed the trend, but purging of introgressed material was slow and varied among replicates. These findings highlight the trade-off between short-term production gains and long-term losses in fitness and adaptation. Our modelling framework provides a reference for exploring introgression in other systems, emphasising that sustainable management of introgression requires restricting imports and breeding locally adapted populations rather than relying on non-native imports.