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Electoral outcomes and health inequality: association between respiratory disease and voting patterns in England

Laverty, A.; Hopkinson, N. S.

2025-06-04 public and global health
10.1101/2025.06.04.25327439 medRxiv
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ObjectivesTo establish if there is an association between health metrics and patterns of voting in England, particularly in relation to a recently established right wing party, Reform UK, in the 2024 general election. DesignEcological cross-sectional study with linear regression SettingEngland Participants543 constituencies in England Main outcome measuresEstimated prevalence of 20 common non-communicable diseases, including obesity, COPD, asthma, type 2 diabetes and depression. ResultsConstituencies electing Reform MPs (n=5/543) had the highest prevalence of Asthma (7.44%) and COPD (2.85%). Across the country, adjusting for age, sex and deprivation, a 10% increase in the partys vote share was associated with a +0.261% (95% Confidence Interval 0.213 to 0.309) prevalence of COPD, a +0.113% (95%CI 0.026 to 0.201) prevalence of asthma and a +1.479% (95%CI 1.239 to 1.720) increase in obesity prevalence. ConclusionsAt a constituency level, poor health, in particular conditions associated with breathlessness, is associated with a greater proportion of votes for Reform UK.

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