On the edge of extinction: Delayed plant genetic response to forest edge dynamics

Understanding genetic responses to forest dynamics is essential for predicting the long-term viability of understory plant populations and for developing effective conservation strategies. This study investigates genetic extinction debt and colonization credit in Circaea lutetiana, a clonal forest understory species, across its European range. Using pooled genotype-by-sequencing data from 40 forest edge and core populations, we examined to what extent population size, latitude and historical changes in forest configuration predict genetic diversity. Our findings reveal that the historical forest configuration profoundly shapes present-day genetic diversity. Long-established forest edge populations exhibit significantly reduced allelic richness (-9%) compared to core populations, indicating the partial pay-off of a genetic extinction debt. In contrast, populations from recently established forest edges maintain comparable allelic richness to core populations, suggesting delayed population genetic responses to land use changes. Finally, populations established in areas that were afforested during the past 250 years exhibit lower genetic diversity than historical forest core populations, indicating a delay in genetic recovery and thus a potential genetic colonization credit. Our results highlight that C. lutetiana populations are not at equilibrium with the current forest configuration, underscoring the role of lagged genetic responses across very long time scales. Connectivity and population size further moderate genetic diversity, with smaller, isolated populations particularly vulnerable to genetic erosion. Given the limited research on delayed evolution in forest understory species, our results improve the understanding of extinction risk dynamics and underscore the need for history-informed restoration efforts.