Using AlphaFold2 to Predict the Conformations of Side Chains in Folded Proteins

AlphaFold has revolutionized protein structure prediction by accurately creating 3D structures from just the amino acid sequence. However, even with extensive research validating its overall accuracy, a key question remains: Can AlphaFold predict the conformation of individual amino acid residue side chains within a folded protein? This is important for the field of molecular modeling, particularly when predicting the effects of mutations on protein stability and ligand binding. AlphaFold generates a set of atomic coordinates not just for the mutated side chain but also for potential rearrangements across the entire protein structure. In this study we investigate the ability of ColabFold, an online implementation of AlphaFold2 (AF2), to predict the conformations of residue side chains in folded proteins. We find that over a set of 10 benchmark proteins, the side chain conformation prediction error of ColabFold is on average [~]14% for {chi}1 dihedral angles, and increases to [~]48% for {chi}3 dihedral angles. The prediction error is smaller for non-polar side chains and is somewhat improved using structural templates. ColabFold demonstrates a bias towards the most prevalent rotamer states in the protein data bank (PDB), potentially limiting its ability to capture rare side chain conformations effectively. As an application of AlphaFold to explore the structural consequences of strongly cooperative mutations on side chain rearrangements, we employ a Potts sequence-based statistical energy model to perform large scale mutational scans of two proteins ABL1 and PIM1 kinase, searching for the most strongly cooperative mutational pairs, and then use ColabFold to predict the structural signatures of this cooperativity on the interacting side chains. Our results demonstrate that integration of the sequence-based Potts model with AlphaFold into a single pipeline provides a new tool that can be used to explore the fundamental relationship between protein mutations, cooperative changes in structure, and fitness.