Evaluation and Replication of a Social Contagion Component of Opioid Use Disorder using Agent-Based Simulation Modeling

PurposeExplore the potential role of a social contagion factor of opioid use disorder by attempting to replicate the exponential rise in opioid overdose mortality rates using agent-based simulation modeling. MethodsWe utilized an agent-based simulation model built using the Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics software to implement the social contagion component. This updated model was run in Allegheny County for a 21-year period for this pilot study. ResultsThe opioid overdose death rate trend was closely replicated by adding the social contagion component to our model. LimitationsThe original model does not account for individual-specific risk factors. Furthermore, our model does not capture the effect of a social contagion on success in treatment. ConclusionsOur findings show that a social contagion component of opioid use disorder is potentially important in understanding the driving factors behind the exponential increase in opioid overdose death rates. There are likely other factors that are also partly responsible for these trends. ImplicationsSocial contagion could help explain the trends in opioid epidemic, but more research is warranted to understand its interaction with other factors, such as age, sex, race, opioid prescription rate etc.