Reaching reproduction in a large carnivore: role of early environment and intrinsic traits

To reach reproduction, individuals must survive the juvenile stage, a critical period of low survival rates in large carnivores. We analysed data from 582 wolves (Canis lupus) identified by DNA during their first year in Sweden and Norway, to investigate intrinsic and extrinsic factors within the natal territory affecting the probability to reach reproduction, i.e. having pups surviving at least 5 months of age. Factors included main prey density, road density, human density, and proximity to non-breeding zones, as well as sex, inbreeding and being collared. Of the 582 wolves identified, 21% reached reproduction. Human density and whether a wolf was collared were the most significant factors. Both were associated with an increased probability to reach reproduction, potentially linked to poaching. Degree of inbreeding was negatively associated with the probability to reach reproduction, while gravel road density and being born in Sweden were positively associated with it. Our findings suggest an influence of legal and illegal human activities on the juvenile stage of wolves for the probability to reach reproduction. Our study enhances the understanding of how early-life conditions and intrinsic traits shape reproduction and underscores the challenges of wolf conservation in anthropized landscapes.