Back

A simple model of population dynamics with beneficial and harmful interaction networks for empirical applications.

Bimler, M. D.; Pascal, L. V.; Adams, M. P.; Baker, C. M.

2024-10-18 ecology
10.1101/2024.10.15.618620 bioRxiv
Show abstract

O_LIPopulation dynamic models can forecast changes in the abundances of multiple interconnected species, which makes them potentially powerful tools for managing ecological communities, yet they remain largely under-utilised in applied settings. High data requirements and the ability to only model a narrow range of ecological interactions and/or trophic levels together limits their usefulness when faced with complex and data-poor systems, where beneficial (e.g. mutualism) and harmful (e.g. competition) interactions may operate simultaneously within and between species. C_LIO_LIWe present a model of population dynamics that can describe a wide range of ecological interaction outcomes with a simple, unified structure. Species growth rates are constrained by a maximum growth rate parameter which prevents the risk of population explosions even in the case of mutualism. Species interactions are defined by two, not mutually-exclusive interactions matrices that describe the effects of beneficial and harmful interactions respectively, together providing the potential for the net effect of interactions between one species and another to switch from beneficial to harmful as population density increases. C_LIO_LIThis model recreates classic dynamics in two-species mutualistic, competitive, and predator-prey scenarios, allowing us to model a wide range of trophic levels and interaction types together within the same equation. The maximum growth rate parameter, theoretically based in intrinsic constraints on reproduction, can be parameterised from a wide range of sources including natural history, historical data, and breeding programs. We illustrate the potential of this model with a data-poor case study of a threatened species and two interacting predators. C_LIO_LIThis new model is generaliseable to a wide range of natural ecological communities. Its model structure lowers data requirements whilst remaining intuitive and biologically realistic, making it an accessible option for predicting community-wide population changes in applied contexts where data is sparse and/or uncertain. C_LI

Matching journals

The top 6 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
Ecological Modelling
28 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
14.8%
2
Theoretical Ecology
24 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
10.8%
3
Oikos
84 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
10.8%
4
Ecology and Evolution
267 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
7.1%
5
Ecology Letters
135 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
5.4%
6
Journal of Theoretical Biology
162 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
4.3%
50% of probability mass above
7
Ecosphere
57 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
4.0%
8
Journal of Animal Ecology
75 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
4.0%
9
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
92 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
3.4%
10
Methods in Ecology and Evolution
176 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
3.4%
11
The American Naturalist
125 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
2.7%
12
Population Ecology
10 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
2.6%
13
Ecography
54 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
2.4%
14
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
69 papers in training set
Top 1%
2.1%
15
PLOS Computational Biology
1863 papers in training set
Top 14%
1.9%
16
Peer Community Journal
281 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.6%
17
Ecology
85 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.6%
18
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
393 papers in training set
Top 5%
1.1%
19
PLOS ONE
5266 papers in training set
Top 58%
1.0%
20
Ecological Monographs
21 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
1.0%
21
Evolutionary Ecology
15 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
1.0%
22
PeerJ
308 papers in training set
Top 12%
0.8%
23
Royal Society Open Science
214 papers in training set
Top 6%
0.8%
24
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B
51 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
0.8%
25
Journal of Mathematical Biology
40 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
0.6%