Schistosomiasis in Humans, 1990-2041: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 Study and Predictions by Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

BackgroundAs the deadline for eliminating schistosomiasis approaches, more targeted and effective interventions should be proposed. We aimed to understand the burden among various gender, ages, countries, and continents and to analyze the trends in the burden of schistosomiasis from 1990 to 2041. MethodsThis study utilizes data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 to analyze the schistosomiasis burden trends from 1990 to 2021, including age-standardized rates of prevalence, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and death of different genders, ages, and regions. Data of schistosomiasis related anemia was also extracted and analyzed. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were used to assess and project the age standardized rates of prevalence, DALYs and death till 2041. ResultsGlobally, the age-standardized rates of prevalence, DALYs, and death of schistosomiasis all present a declining trend. Individuals aged 15 to 29 years old present the highest age-standardized rates of prevalence and DALYs. The burden of schistosomiasis varies inversely with socio-economic development. The Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) rate for schistosomiasis-related anemia increases with the burden of schistosomiasis. The age-standardized rates of prevalence, DALYs, and death might tend to decline until 2041 in the world, Africa, Asia, and the Americas. ConclusionsThe burden of schistosomiasis is clustered in the 15 to 29 age group, which represents the strongest labor force. Additionally, reproductive-aged women also experience a significant disease burden. Targeted interventions including preventive chemotherapy, health behavior change, and communications should be proposed and covered this risk population. Author summarySchistosomiasis primarily affects more than 200 million people in Africa, Asia, and the Americas. To achieve the World Health Organizations (WHO) 2030 target of eliminating schistosomiasis as a public health problem globally, understanding the distribution of schistosomiasis burden is crucial. In this study, we employed data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 to analyze the burden of schistosomiasis across different regions, countries, genders, and age groups. Our analysis reveals that both the age standardized rates of prevalence and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of schistosomiasis reach the peak among individuals aged 15-29 years, who represent the highest potential for labor force participation and reproduction. The disease burden increases with the decline of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). However, countries with higher levels of healthcare level exhibit lower schistosomiasis-related anemia Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) rates. Most endemic areas in Asia and the Americas are supposed to achieve the target of schistosomiasis elimination before 2030, but Africa faces challenges in meeting it. Therefore, we advised endemic countries with lower SDIs to implement targeted interventions for the 15 to 29 age group. Meanwhile, improving healthcare level also be important to decrease the impact of schistosomiasis.