Geographic risk assessment of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans invasion in Costa Rica as a means of informing emergence management and mitigation

Remotely-sensed risk assessments of emerging, invasive pathogens are key to targeted surveillance and outbreak responses. The recent emergence and spread of the fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), in Europe has negatively impacted multiple salamander species. Scholars and practitioners are increasingly concerned about the potential consequences of this lethal pathogen in the Americas, where salamander biodiversity is higher than anywhere else in the world. Although Bsal has not yet been detected in the Americas, certain countries have already proactively implemented monitoring and detection plans in order to identify areas of greatest concern and enable efficient contingency planning in the event of pathogen detection. To predict areas in Costa Rica with a high Bsal transmission risk, we employed ecological niche modeling combined with biodiversity and tourist visitation data to ascertain the specific risk to a country with world renowned biodiversity. Our findings indicate that approximately 23% of Costa Ricas landmass provides suitable conditions for Bsal, posing a threat to 37 salamander species. The Central and Talamanca mountain ranges, in particular, have habitats predicted to be highly suitable for the pathogen. To facilitate monitoring and mitigation efforts, we identified eight specific protected areas that we believe are at the greatest risk due to a combination of high biodiversity, tourist visitation, and suitable habitat for Bsal. We advise regular monitoring utilizing remotely-sensed data and ecological niche modeling to effectively target in-situ surveillance and as places begin implementing educational efforts.