Mathematical Model Predicts Tumor Control Patterns Induced by Fast and Slow CTL Killing Mechanisms

Immunotherapy has dramatically transformed the cancer treatment landscape largely due to the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Although ICIs have shown promising results for many patients, the low response rates in many cancers highlight the ongoing challenges in cancer treatment. Cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) execute their cell-killing function via two distinct mechanisms: a fast-acting, perforin-mediated process and a slower, Fas ligand (FasL)-driven path-way. Evidence also suggests that the preferred killing mechanism of CTLs depends on the anti-genicity of tumor cells. To determine the critical factors affecting responses to ICIs, we construct an ordinary differential equation model describing in vivo tumor-immune dynamics in the presence of active or blocked PD-1/PD-L1 immune checkpoint. Specifically, we identify important aspects of the tumor-immune landscape that affect tumor size and composition in the short and long term. By generating a virtual cohort with differential tumor and immune attributes, we also simulate the therapeutic outcomes of immune checkpoint blockade in a heterogenous population. In this way, we identify key tumor and immune characteristics that are associated with tumor elimination, dor-mancy, and escape. Our analysis sheds light on which fraction of a population potentially responds well to ICIs and ways to enhance therapeutic outcomes with combination therapy.