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Pandemic Vaccination Strategies: Global Optimization

Thompson, J.; Benitez-Paez, F.; Guerrero, O.

2023-06-20 epidemiology
10.1101/2023.06.13.23291327 medRxiv
Show abstract

In the event of a global pandemic, caused by an infectious disease of humans, we consider the scenario in which a safe and effective vaccine is available, with limited supply. We then investigate the optimal distribution of doses across countries and age groups. We employ a system of SIR equations to model the pandemic dynamics and utilize genetic algorithms to identify optimal allocations that minimize either total infections or total deaths. Our findings reveal that strategies aimed at reducing infections differ from those aimed at reducing deaths, with neither strategy advocating proportional dose allocation between countries based on population size. Our findings moreover bring to light potential ethical challenges associated with the implementation of strategy optimization.

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