Using mechanistic models to assess temporary closure strategies for small scale fisheries

1The blue octopus (Octopus cyanea) fishery off the southwest coast of Madagascar is important for coastal communities. This fishery is a key economic resource for the local community as blue octopus catch is sold by local fishers to international and local export markets. Thus, it is important to monitor and evaluate the status of octopus to ensure its sustainability. One common octopus management approach is through the use of temporary spatial closures. Models can be a useful support tool to evaluate the status of a population and assess different possible management strategies. To better understand the biology and assess the sustainability of blue octopus, we parameterize a Levkovitch population matrix model using existing catch data. We found that the octopus population was experiencing a 1.8% decline per month at the time of data collection in 2006. However, since 2006, a number of management practices, including temporary closures lasting several weeks to several months have been implemented successfully. In line with these efforts, our model indicates that the fishery has likely been sustained since 2006 due to these annual closures. Our model provides support to the idea that temporary closures have restored this population and that temporary closures provide flexibility in management strategies that local communities can tailor to their economic and social needs. In addition, we were able to estimate several important life history metrics, such as time in each stage, stable stage distribution, reproductive value, and per stage survivability, that can be used in future work. Collectively, our study provides insight into the biology of blue octopus as well as demonstrate how temporary closures can be an effective conservation strategy due to the wide range of implementation options.