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COVID-19 as a continuous-time stochastic process

Lone, I.; Jan, P. M.

2023-03-09 pathology
10.1101/2023.03.08.531718 bioRxiv
Show abstract

In this article a mathematical treatment of Covid-19 as a stochastic process is discussed. The chance of extinction and the consequences of introducing new Covid-19 infectives into the population are evaluated by using certain approximate arguments. It is shown, in general terms, that the stochastic formulation of a recurrent epidemic like Covid-19 leads to the prediction of a permanent succession of undamped outbreaks of disease. It is also shown that one is able to derive certain useful conclusions about Covid-19 without consideration of immune individuals in a population.

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